Two observations today. The first is just more confirmation of the pervasive corruption that has characterized the Trump administration. The second is evidence that the stupidity and incompetence that triggered an illegal war will cause global instability and economic chaos.
#1. ProPublica has made a trove of 3200 documents public and searchable. The documents “detail the finances of more than 1,500 federal officials appointed by President Donald Trump. Records for Trump and Vice President JD Vance are also included.”
The documents reveal a web of financial ties between senior government officials and the industries they help regulate — relationships that have drawn scrutiny as Trump has dismantled ethics safeguards designed to prevent conflicts of interest.
On his first day back in office, Trump rescinded an executive order signed by President Joe Biden that required his appointees to comply with an ethics pledge. The pledge barred them from working on issues related to their former lobbying topics or clients for two years. Weeks later, Trump fired 17 inspectors general charged with investigating fraud, corruption and conflicts of interest across the federal government. Around the same time, he removed the head of the Office of Government Ethics, the agency that oversees ethics compliance throughout the executive branch. The office is currently without a head or a chief of staff.
#2. As one pundit recently observed, the focus on Trump’s malevolence has obscured the extent of his stupidity. His inability to plan, his dismissal of expertise, his inability to read briefings and his life-long reliance on “gut feelings” rather than data or logic led to his adventurism in Iran. Evidently, he confused warfare with video gaming.
Trump displays total ignorance of global strategic and economic interrelationships.
So now we are seeing results that were predictable, but clearly unanticipated: civilian casualties, the deaths and severe wounding of U.S. soldiers, huge financial costs, energy-market shocks, strengthened geopolitical rivals, regional instability…the list goes on.
Trump was evidently unaware of the global importance of the Strait of Hormuz and unprepared for the spiking costs of gas. Given the worldwide agricultural dependence on the fertilizer that also comes through the Strait, it will take longer to see the effect on prices at the supermarket, but those are coming.
And then there’s Taiwan, which has little domestic fuel and relies on imported liquid natural gas (LNG) that comes–you guessed it!–through the Strait of Hormuz. Due to storage issues, Taiwan can keep only 10-14 days of LNG reserves. If the Strait is closed long enough to cut off Taiwan’s LNG supply, the effect on its semiconductor industry would be rapid and severe; chip manufacturing is extremely energy-intensive and Taiwan’s power system depends heavily on imported fuel.
If semiconductor supply from Taiwan is significantly reduced, the economic effects will be global. In today’s world, chips are embedded in thousands of products. (When there were shortages and supply chain disruptions during the pandemic, prices rose sharply and production fell in multiple industries.) Taiwan manufactures most of the world’s advanced chips, and a reduction in its capacity would lead to shortages and huge price spikes in everything from automobiles to consumer electronics to household appliances to medical equipment.
It is abundantly clear that the administration didn’t think about–or know–any of this. It obviously never occurred to Trump or Hegseth that there might be strong reasons past administrations had decided not to start a war in the already volatile Middle East, and that it might be prudent to consult intelligence experts. (Whoops! I forgot–experts have been routinely purged…)
And as The Bulwark recently reported, the administration’s few articulated goals have not been met. There has been no regime change. Intelligence reports provide “consistent analysis that the regime is not in danger” of collapse and “retains control of the Iranian public.”
Trump was confident the Strait of Hormuz would be kept open because we could prevent the Iranian Navy from laying mines. “But it turned out that the mere fact of risk was enough to cause maritime insurers to refuse to cover shipping vessels. Which had the same effect as a waterway full of mines. The Trump administration was completely blindsided by this completely predictable situation.”
There’s much, much more, but I’ll just leave you with the last paragraphs of the Bulwark report.
The Iran war is also burning through Patriot missiles and other air defense munitions that are needed in Ukraine. Which strengthens Russia’s position, makes Putin less likely to seek a ceasefire, and increases the risk of wider European destabilization.
All of which is much worse for American economic and security interests than a destabilized Iran reeling from air strikes and internal unrest was three weeks ago.
Elect a clown, expect a circus….
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